By statistically analyzing the measurements of many faces, Todorov and his team isolated what makes faces look more or less competent. Much of it relates to perceived “facial maturity” and attractiveness, but it’s easier to show than tell how this works. Check out this video from the lab’s website in which a face that is neutral in competence morphs to highly competent and then to utterly incompetent before returning to neutral:
Todorov’s findings have been repeatedly replicated, controlling for gender, age, race, incumbency, and a few other possible explanations. The results hold when the subjects are from a different country or a different culture than the candidates. They hold when the subjects are children from one country judging the faces of candidates from another. These are true snap judgments. Their correlation with election results doesn’t fade even when glances are as brief as one tenth of a second.
What’s going on? Our brains seem to have specialized neural circuits devoted to face perception. Researchers suggest that humans have a well-honed and automatic response to faces, one deeply rooted in our evolution, helping us read each other’s intentions and tell friend from foe, a particularly important skill back in our cave days.
Into this basic neural machinery, we feed our various cultural stereotypes, a process that University of Toronto psychologist Nicholas Rule calls, “cultural tuning.” In one of Rule’s studies, Japanese and American “voters” saw the same traits in the faces of candidates from each other’s countries. Instead of competence, these subjects judged “warmth” (a mix of likeability and trustworthiness) and “power” (a mix of dominance and facial maturity). Despite agreeing on these traits, however, subjects could only predict the election winners among same-culture candidates. Americans tended to choose the more powerful faces while the Japanese favored those with more warmth.
It’s hard to gauge the accuracy of these competence judgments, of course, because a politician’s actual competence is nearly impossible to objectively measure, especially in the context of a campaign. Ideology is a bit easier to verify. Party affiliation and voting records are good clues. Can we tell whether a candidate will govern to the left or right of the political spectrum just by glancing at his or her face? The answer is debated. Importantly, though, many people think they can, and studies find significant agreement (if not necessarily truth) in face-based guesses about ideology.
In a handful of published studies, subjects are usually just a bit better than chance at guessing party affiliation. Exactly what they are seeing is murky. In Finland and Australia, more attractive candidates were judged to be more conservative. In England, subjects judging the faces of MPs inferred Labor from broad, toothy smiles and round faces, and Conservative from tighter smiles and more angular faces.
One study of American voters found them to be a bit better than chance (averaging 57 percent correct) at guessing the party affiliation of unknown politicians, controlling for gender. To control for age differences, researchers had people look at college yearbook photos of students identified as members of the college Republican or Democrat clubs. In this case, they averaged 62 percent correct. The faces judged as Republican tended to convey more “power” to subjects while those faces identified as Democrats correlated with more “warmth.”
According to a study published in September, looking more Republican than your opponent correlated with a significant increase in the candidate’s vote share in Republican-leaning states (and among Republican voters in hypothetical elections) even if the candidate was actually a Democrat! The researchers, led by Christopher Olivola, a former member of Todorov’s lab and now a research fellow at the University of Warwick (UK), expected to find a similar boost on the Democratic side, but they didn’t. As with previous studies, subjects viewing pairs of photographs were slightly better than chance at guessing political affiliation. Nevertheless, Olivola is skeptical that people really have an ability to accurately read political affiliation in faces beyond the obvious cues (e.g. minorities are more likely Democrats).
By necessity, study participants don’t recognize the politicians they’re judging. In real elections, of course, most people vote along party lines or based on a passion for certain issues. And once they step into the voting booth, most have at least have an inkling about who’s running, and there are no photographs on the ballots (in America at least). This begs the question: Do these biases matter in real elections?
Absent a string of candidates undergoing plastic surgery, the best that researchers can do is isolate correlations. Last year, for instance, MIT political scientists surveyed people who intended to vote in elections contested by candidates whose faces were rated (by others) on their attractiveness and apparent competence. Woven into the survey were questions about TV habits and a sort-of quiz about the federal government and the basics of major issues. They found that uninformed voters (lowest quartile) who also watch a lot of TV (top quartile) seem to be particularly swayed by a candidate’s appearance. Specifically, candidates gained nearly 5 percent of vote share among these folks for every 10 percent increase in how appealing they looked (a mix of competence and attractiveness). How many of these people are leaving the TV long enough to find their way to polling places?
“I have sad news for you,” says Gabriel Lenz, one of the MIT researchers. “It’s probably more common than this survey suggests.” According to the 2008 American National Election Study, for example, 60 percent of eligible voters didn’t know which party controlled the most seats in Congress.
As it happens, researchers have compared Barack Obama and Mitt Romney’s face-based competence. At the outset of the 2008 presidential primaries, when both men were relative unknowns to people outside the U.S., a group of researchers asked New Zealand high-school students to rate the competence of every politician vying for the nomination. On a ten-point scale of competence, Hillary Clinton ranked highest among the Democrats while Obama came in third (6.8). That outpaced the highest-rated Republican, John McCain (6.2) and Romney (6.1).
Of course, the number of voters who know next to nothing about candidates in an election as high profile as the contest for President of the United States shrinks considerably. Looking the part is likely to matter a lot more in the 435 elections for the House of Representatives and, to a lesser extent, the 33 Senate races that will be decided on November 6.
“I think that by the time a candidate gets the presidential nomination from one of the major parties, they must have some basic level of competence,” says Todorov. “There is so much vetting. There are so many gatekeepers. People don’t just get there randomly.”
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