It's not news that campaigns try to win debates by lowering the expectations for their candidate's performance to the point where sentience and continence while on stage counts as victory. Here's The Daily Show's take on the strategy.
It's such a well-worn ploy, and so easily mocked, that one wonders who remains to be taken in by pre-debate expectations limbo. Certainly, it's not the more than 90 percent of the electorate who has already made up their minds. They are unlikely to be swayed by the debates. And I don't really think it's the much sought after undecided voters, not directly anyway. They just aren't paying enough attention. They may watch the debates themselves, but most of aren't tuning in for all the pre-debate punditry on the Sunday talk shows.
No, the expectations gambit is aimed squarely at one audience: the media. It's a solipsistic little game with big potential impact on the election. Because the news, particularly political campaign coverage, lives and dies on narratives, especially "horse race" narratives of who's gaining and who's losing. Among the forces that remain for influencing undecided votes in one direction or another, the momentum of a good narrative is among the most powerful, and the most superficial. As New York Times columnist Ross Douthat points out in "The Media Bias That Matters":
"As a presidential candidate part of your job is to be aware of how easily the horse race narrative can overwhelm whatever story you want the country to be hearing, and to do everything in your power to actively shape a narrative that will inevitably be shaped by the press’s zeal for “who’s up/who’s down” reportage as well."
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| Democalypse 2012 - Negate Expectations - The Presidential Debates | ||||
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It's such a well-worn ploy, and so easily mocked, that one wonders who remains to be taken in by pre-debate expectations limbo. Certainly, it's not the more than 90 percent of the electorate who has already made up their minds. They are unlikely to be swayed by the debates. And I don't really think it's the much sought after undecided voters, not directly anyway. They just aren't paying enough attention. They may watch the debates themselves, but most of aren't tuning in for all the pre-debate punditry on the Sunday talk shows.
No, the expectations gambit is aimed squarely at one audience: the media. It's a solipsistic little game with big potential impact on the election. Because the news, particularly political campaign coverage, lives and dies on narratives, especially "horse race" narratives of who's gaining and who's losing. Among the forces that remain for influencing undecided votes in one direction or another, the momentum of a good narrative is among the most powerful, and the most superficial. As New York Times columnist Ross Douthat points out in "The Media Bias That Matters":
"As a presidential candidate part of your job is to be aware of how easily the horse race narrative can overwhelm whatever story you want the country to be hearing, and to do everything in your power to actively shape a narrative that will inevitably be shaped by the press’s zeal for “who’s up/who’s down” reportage as well."
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